Lub Hwj Chim AI Computing Ua Rau Kev Xav Tau Hauv Kev Lag Luam; G652D G657A2 Fiber Optic Nqe Nce Mus Rau Qhov Siab Tshiab

Txij li thaum pib xyoo 2026, kev lag luam fiber ntau tau pom tias muaj kev nce nqi tsawg heev. Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv fiber ntau G.652.D ib hom tau nce sai sai los ntawm kwv yees li 3usd ib lub core-kilometer thaum kawg ntawm xyoo 2025 mus txog kwv yees li 7.5usd ib lub core-kilometer. Cov lus hais hauv qee txoj kev faib khoom tau hla lub cim 7.5usd - qee qhov txawm tias dhau qhov12usd ib lub core-kilometerqhov pib - teeb tsa qhov siab tshaj plaws xya xyoo rau kev nce nqi tag nrho. Tib lub sijhawm, cov fibers tshwj xeeb zoo li G.657.A2 thiab G.654.E tau ntsib kev nce nqi ntau dua.

Muaj ntau tus neeg ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam uas tau xam phaj txog qhov teeb meem no tau hais tias qhov kev nce nqi no yog vim muaj kev thov ntau ntxiv los ntawm ntau qhov chaw: AI computing infrastructure, "Eastern Data, Western Computing", thiab kev sib txuas lus 5G network tob. Qhov kev thov ntau ntxiv no yog vim muaj kev txwv tsis pub muaj peev xwm tsim khoom fiber ntau thiab kev muab khoom siv raw khoom tsawg, ua rau muaj kev tsis sib npaug ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov. Vim muaj cov yam no, cov nqi sib koom ntawm A-share cov tuam txhab teev npe hauv cov fiber ntau, cable, thiab kev sib txuas lus optical tau txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv. Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam loj tau tshaj tawm cov ntawv xaj tag nrho thiab kev hloov kho dua tshiab rau lawv cov kev kwv yees nyiaj tau los, qhia tias kev lag luam tab tom mus txog qhov tseem ceeb - hloov pauv ntawm theem kev ua tsov rog nqi mus rau ib qho ntawm kev rov qab tau nyiaj.

**Kev Nce Nqi Fiber Optical Fiber Yuav Muaj Peev Xwm Tag Nrho**

Raws li "lub paj hlwb" ntawm cov khoom siv digital, cov fiber ntau ua haujlwm ua lub hauv paus rau kev xa cov zog suav AI, pab txhawb kev sib txuas lus 5G, sib txuas cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv, thiab txhawb nqa "Eastern Data, Western Computing" project. Nws cov kev ua tau zoo thiab kev muab khoom ncaj qha txiav txim siab qhov ceev thiab zoo ntawm kev txhim kho kev lag luam digital.

Tus nqi nce ntawm cov khoom siv fiber ntau tam sim no tau pib thaum lub quarter thib plaub ntawm xyoo 2025 thiab tau nce mus rau qib siab dua thaum Lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Ob Hlis ntawm xyoo 2026. Qhov no tsis yog tsuas yog kev nce nqi hauv zos uas cuam tshuam rau cov lus qhia tshwj xeeb xwb, tab sis yog kev nce nqi dav dav uas suav nrog txhua pawg khoom thiab cov channel faib khoom.

Tshwj xeeb, cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm CRU qhia tau hais tias tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev ua lag luam rau G.652.D ib hom fiber - hom siv dav tshaj plaws hauv kev sib txuas lus - nce siab los ntawm tsawg dua 20 yuan ib lub core-kilometer thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2025 mus rau ntawm 40 thiab 50 yuan ib lub core-kilometer thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2026. Qhov nce siab tshaj plaws txhua hli tshaj 75%, ua rau tus nqi ob npaug hauv peb lub hlis xwb.

Los ntawm qhov kev xav txog kev yuav khoom, qhov kev nce nqi tib lub sijhawm hauv cov kev sib tw yuav khoom uas cov neeg nqa khoom coj ua ke ntxiv qhov tseeb thiab kev ruaj khov ntawm qhov kev nce nqi tam sim no.

Qhov sib txawv ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb uas ua rau muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi nce siab. Guotai Haitong Securities hais tias, tiv thaiv keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev hloov pauv loj hauv kev lag luam fiber optics, qhov kev lag luam thoob plaws ntawm kev nce nqi tau lees paub. Tom qab ntsib kev nyuaj siab hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo tas los, tus nqi rau cov fiber ntau optical xoob tau rov qab los hauv ib nrab thib ob; qhov kev rov zoo no tau tsav los ntawm kev nce siab ntawm kev thov txawv teb chaws rau G.657.A2 fiber, uas ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv hauv peev xwm tsim khoom. Raws li lub peev xwm hloov pauv ntawm G.652.D fiber - ua rau muaj kev muab khoom tsawg dua thiab maj mam ntev lub sijhawm ua lag luam - tus nqi rau cov fiber xoob tau txuas ntxiv mus rau lawv txoj kev nce siab hauv lub sijhawm tsis ntev los no.

**Ib qho kev hloov pauv uas yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau ib ntus**

Qhov kev nce nqi ntawm cov nqi fiber optic tam sim no tsis yog tsuas yog kev hloov pauv ntawm kev ua lag luam uas tsav los ntawm kev kwv yees luv luv xwb; es, nws yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev sib koom ua ke ntawm ntau yam, suav nrog kev tsis sib xws ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, cov qauv nqi ruaj khov, thiab kev ua kom zoo dua ntawm thaj chaw kev lag luam.

Ntawm cov yam no, kev loj hlob sai ntawm sab kev thov - ua ke nrog kev txwv tsis pub muaj kev pabcuam - yog qhov ua rau muaj teeb meem loj. Los ntawm qhov kev xav tau, kev tsim kho sai ntawm AI computing infrastructure tau tshwm sim ua tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb uas ua rau muaj kev thov rau optical fiber.

Nrog rau kev siv loj ntawm cov cuab yeej tsim tawm AI thiab cov qauv lus loj, qhov kev nrawm ntawm kev tsim kho rau cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv hyperscale AI txuas ntxiv mus nrawm dua. Ib qho chaw khaws ntaub ntawv hyperscale AI siv peb mus rau tsib zaug ntawm cov fiber ntau dua piv rau cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv ib txwm muaj; yog li ntawd, qhov kev thov rau cov fiber ntau qis, ceev ceev - qhov tseem ceeb rau kev sib txuas sab hauv thiab kev sib kis mus rau pawg ntev - tab tom ntsib kev loj hlob sai.

Cov voj voog fiber optic yav dhau los feem ntau yog tsav los ntawm kev nthuav dav broadband lossis 5G chaw nres tsheb los ntawm cov neeg teb xov tooj - kev siv zog tseem ceeb los daws qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb ntawm "seb puas muaj kev sib txuas." Txawm li cas los xij, lub voj voog tam sim no yog tsav los ntawm qhov xav tau los txhawb cov kev xav tau ntawm kev suav lej siab ntawm cov qauv AI loj - tshwj xeeb, daws qhov teeb meem ntawm "kev thauj mus los ntawm lub zog suav lej." Qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm kev thov - txav mus los ntawm txheej nkag mus rau tus neeg siv kawg mus rau chav khoom siv tseem ceeb thiab Data Center Interconnects (DCI) - tau hloov pauv qhov xav tau rau cov fibers optical tshwj xeeb ua haujlwm siab, qis-poob.

Tib lub sijhawm ntawd, kev nce qib ntawm kev npog 5G tob thiab kev xa mus rau pem hauv ntej ntawm 6G tes hauj lwm kuj tseem ua rau muaj kev thov fiber ntau dua. Qhov kev thov rau cov fiber ntau dua hauv cov tes hauj lwm pem hauv ntej thiab nruab nrab ntawm 5G chaw nres tsheb tau nce siab heev; ntxiv rau, cov kev pib xws li kev rov ua dua tshiab hauv nroog thiab kev txhim kho "Gigabit Cities" tab tom tsav tsheb txhim kho ntawm Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) tes hauj lwm mus rau 10-Gigabit ceev, ua kom ntseeg tau tias muaj kev loj hlob ruaj khov thiab ruaj khov hauv kev thov hauv kev lag luam sib txuas lus ib txwm muaj.

Ntxiv mus, kev loj hlob sai ntawm cov xwm txheej thov tshiab - xws li Kev Lag Luam Hauv Is Taws Nem, kev siv fiber optics hauv tsheb, thiab kev sib txuas lus hauv aerospace - tau nthuav dav ntxiv rau qhov muaj peev xwm rau kev loj hlob ntxiv ntawm kev thov fiber optic. Qhov kev hloov pauv no tau hloov pauv cov qauv kev thov ntawm kev lag luam: txav deb ntawm kev vam khom rau kev yuav khoom los ntawm cov neeg teb xov tooj, nws tab tom hloov mus rau qhov chaw thov ntau dua thiab muaj kev thov siab dua.

Tus yam ntxwv tseem ceeb ntawm cov nqi fiber optic tam sim no nce siab yog tias nws yog *kev nce nqi*, uas yog los ntawm sab kev thov. Kev tsim kho ntawm AI computing infrastructure thiab cov kev pib xws li "Eastern Data, Western Computing" project tau ua rau muaj kev thov fiber ntau heev; tib lub sijhawm, kev thov rau tub rog FPV optical-fiber drones kuj tau nce siab heev. Txawm li cas los xij, ntawm sab kev muab khoom, kev txwv ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom ntawm optical fiber preforms (preform rods) tau ua rau nws nyuaj rau teb sai rau qhov kev nce siab no. Qhov kev tsis sib xws ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov tau ua rau muaj kev nce nqi sai, luv luv. Tsis zoo li cov xwm txheej yav dhau los - qhov twg kev nce nqi feem ntau yog los ntawm kev yuav khoom los ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv telecom thiab lwm qhov chaw thov ib txwm muaj, thiab qhov twg cov voj voog hloov pauv nqi luv luv - qhov kev sib tw tam sim no yog tswj hwm los ntawm AI thiab lwm cov lag luam tshiab. Nws sawv cev rau kev hloov pauv mus sij hawm ntev uas tshwm sim thaum muaj kev hloov pauv loj hauv kev lag luam; kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov yog tus yam ntxwv los ntawm kev ruaj khov thiab qhov loj me, es tsis yog tsuas yog cov khoom ntawm kev kwv yees luv luv.

Qhov tseem ceeb uas ua rau muaj kev nce nqi no yog qhov teeb meem ntawm lub peev xwm ua cov khoom siv fiber ntau optical preform. Hauv cov saw hlau kev lag luam fiber ntau optical, cov khoom siv preform txiav txim siab qhov txwv siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev muab khoom; ntu no yog tus yam ntxwv los ntawm cov teeb meem thev naus laus zis siab, lub voj voog nthuav dav peev xwm ntev, thiab cov peev txheej xav tau ntau, ua rau nws nyuaj rau kev muab khoom kom ua raws li kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov. Saib rau pem hauv ntej, yog tias lub peev xwm tsim khoom preform maj mam qhib los ntawm kev siv cov khoom siv tshiab thiab kev nce qib thev naus laus zis, qhov tsis sib npaug ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov yuav yooj yim dua, thiab cov nqi fiber ntau optical yuav maj mam rov qab mus rau qhov ntau yam tsim nyog. Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias kev txhim kho ntawm AI thiab lwm yam kev lag luam tshaj qhov kev cia siab - tsav tsheb txuas ntxiv mus, kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov - thaum kev nthuav dav ntawm lub peev xwm preform tsis txaus qhov kwv yees, cov nqi yuav nyob twj ywm ntawm qib siab lossis txuas ntxiv mus rau sab saud ntawm kev hloov pauv.

Hauv cov txheej txheem tsim cov fiber ntau optical, cov fiber ntau preform (preform rod) yog theem tseem ceeb. Nws suav txog 60% txog 70% ntawm tag nrho cov nqi tsim khoom thiab sawv cev rau ntu uas muaj cov teeb meem thev naus laus zis siab tshaj plaws thiab cov kev xav tau peev txheej loj tshaj plaws. Ntxiv mus, lub voj voog tsim kho rau ib kab ntau lawm preform yog qhov dav heev, feem ntau yog 18 txog 24 lub hlis - ib qho txheej txheem ntev uas suav nrog txhua yam los ntawm kev pom zoo rau qhov project, kev yuav khoom siv, kev teeb tsa, thiab kev ua haujlwm mus rau qhov kawg ntawm kev nce qib ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom.

Txij xyoo 2019 txog 2024, kev lag luam fiber ntau tau raug kev sib ntaus sib tua ntev uas ua rau cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab poob qis heev. Yog li ntawd, feem ntau cov tuam txhab tau xaiv los txo lawv cov peev txheej, ua rau muaj kev txwv ntau ntxiv rau lub peev xwm tsim khoom preform thaum lub sijhawm no.

Txawm li cas los xij, cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam ntseeg tias qhov kev nce nqi ntawm cov nqi fiber ntau optical no yuav tsis ploj mus sai sai no.

Tus nqi nce ntxiv ntawm cov fiber ntau optical qhia txog qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv tseem ceeb uas txhawb nqa kev lag luam digital. Txawm hais tias qhov kev nyuaj siab ntawm tus nqi no thaum kawg yuav raug xa mus rau cov neeg teb xov tooj, nws yuav raug nqus mus rau hauv qhov hwm tag nrho uas cuam tshuam nrog kev tsim kho vaj tse AI. Tsuav yog kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb rau lub zog suav AI tseem tsis tau txo qis, qhov kev tsis txaus ntawm cov qauv no - uas yog los ntawm kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis - tsis tuaj yeem daws tau yooj yim hauv lub sijhawm luv luv los ntawm kev nce qib ntawm cov peev xwm tsim khoom uas twb muaj lawm. Qhov kev thov tseem ceeb ntawm cov chaw suav ntse rau bandwidth siab heev thiab kev sib kis qis-latency tau tso lawv ua lub cav tseem ceeb uas tsav tsheb kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov fiber optics, yog li ntawd rov tsim kho qhov kev thov ntawm kev lag luam fiber. Piv rau cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv ib txwm muaj, qhov kev xav tau fiber optic ntawm ib lub chaw suav ntse tuaj yeem yog ntau - lossis ntau dua kaum - zaug ntau dua; ib pawg GPU ib txwm muaj 10,000 daim npav, piv txwv li, xav tau kaum txhiab mais fiber-core tsuas yog rau kev sib txuas sab hauv server. Qhov sib koom ntawm kev thov fiber optic uas yog los ntawm AI-tsav intra-data center thiab DCI (Data Center Interconnect) cov xwm txheej kwv yees tias yuav nce ntxiv los ntawm tsawg dua5% hauv xyoo 2024 txog 35% los ntawm xyoo 2027.